Conventional Wisdom Be Damned!

The Old Way is not Always the Best Way

Often contemporary sports are regulated or persuaded by what is routinely regarded as CONVENTIONAL WISDOM. Well !@#% conventional wisdom. Like most in the Cleveland area, I have been extremely interested in the starting quarterback situation. The Cleveland Browns have not had the convenience of a locked in starting quarterback since they cut Bernie Kosar. Sure there have been QBs who were perceived to be the clear cut starter, they were not much improved over the guy they replaced. The bottom line is there has not been a situation where one QB was clearly more talented than the others on the team. Charlie Frye has been named the starter by default for the last season and a half. Simply because he made the least amount of mistakes and looked the least crappy of the candidates. Charlie Frye is a MAC QB and a mediocre to below average QB in the NFL. The reason he has been considered the guy is because the guys behind him were clearly worse. Enter the current dilemma.
Charlie Frye is alright for a sub acceptable team, a rebuilding team, one who has low expectations.
Derek Anderson is alright for a Div 1 big six conference college team.
Ken Dorsey is alright for a national championship contender, yet again a college team, however, he can offer leadership that the previous two cannot. Enter Brady Quinn. On draft day and every day leading up to the fans and scouts had been split. Some believe he’s a great manager of the game with occasional brilliant deep balls. Some believe he is the product of an over hyped and sensationalized program. There is no doubt about one thing, no matter what side of the fence you (provided you give a damn about the cleveland browns) are on, Quinn is clearly a better more talented player than any of the other signal callers currently on this roster. I don't think there is a single doubt in the entire BrownsNation that Quinn is the most talented QB on the team. The concern comes from the past. The past always haunts Browns fans. I submit, would one always want to play the best players or play the guy that gives your team the best chance to win? What ever happened to that Conventional Wisdom?

Before we ever consider September 9th, we have to retain our sanity. Just because a player seems to be completely better, talent wise, than the competing QB's doesn't automatically give him the starting nod. However, we can dissearn that winning the job should not be hard, given the previously mentioned lack of talent preceeding him. All this seems simple enough, as long as he is given an equal and fair shot. Some would argue he doesn't deserve a fair shot since he held out for three weeks. If you believe that then you should stop reading now and turn to some cookie cutter p.c. popular twisting of the truth publication. Holdouts are a part of the process. Until the NFL adopts an NBA like pay structure for rookies, nothing will change. That, however, is a discussion for a different day.

The problem we find ourselves in, is one of the conspiracy theory persuation. Point one: Coach Romeo Crennel (or RAC as his players call him) is in his third season, a must win season. Point two: Phil Savage (an this point is incontrovertable) has acquired players over the last 2 years that has improved the Cleveland Browns by no less than 400%. Point three: The fans have dealt with being cellar dwellars for 7+ years. Point four: There are no less than 6 legitamate proven NFL coaches available as of February 2008. Point five: Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards are both 2 years removed from ACL injuries (Statistics prove that a players production will be between 20%-50% better 2 years removed than 1 year removed ). The best YOUNG Offensive line ON PAPER. And a Defense that is a solid bend but don't break team. What does all of this mean? Phil Savage has done his job. The players are progressing as well if not better than can legitamately be expected. There are replacement candidates waiting in the wind with better credentials than RAC. So if Crennel does not render results this season there is no other conclusion that ownership can make except-the lack of production falls on Crennel's responsibility and his alone. Success naturally being 8-8 or better.

From RAC's perspective, coming from the Belichek/Parcell's tree of coaching, the best QB to lead his team is on of the Veteran Persuation. In this case veteran is a very loose concept. We are not talking Quinn vs. Brett Favre here. Frye has been in the league 2 years and barely started a full season combined. Anderson has been in the league 2 years and started a quarter of a season worth of games. Ken Dorsey is a great football mind, worth having, but not worth starting and leading a team on the field. Quinn has been in the league for a month. Relatively speaking, the afformentioned QB's have an experience edge on Quinn but how much credence can one put on in 2 years. I personally, do not think that all of Frye, Anderson, and Dorsey's experience combined hold that much water in the scheme of things. Not if Quinn is a better/more talented player. Still, someone has to WIN the job. RAC is afraid that if he indeed gives each guy an equal shot, then the fans, media, other players, ownership, and former players will in some way shape or fashion force RAC's hand to push Quinn into the starting role. Due to the fact that Crennel is a Belichek/Parcells product, that cannot happen. In the most simplistic terms-Romeo Crennel cannot wrap his head around the idea of starting a rookie quarterback in a season where he must render wins. Period. If this were not the case, then he would have given each quarterback a shot a the first team defenses in the subsequent preseason games. As it turns out the only quarterbacks given that opportunity were the 2 year underwhelming choices of Frye/Anderson. Not even Dorsey, in all fairness of course, was given that opportunity. It is all too convenient. If Frye plays well, he is the most experienced of the candidates, he knows the system and gives us the best chance to win. If Anderson plays well, he has learned the system, played his way into the role, and gives us the best chance to win. If Dorsey plays well, he is a solid competitor with a great mind for the game but it will come down to Frye or Anderson. If Quinn plays well (up until the Denver game, where Shanihan played his 1's and 2's late into the 3rd quarter) then, Quinn's performance was commendable, he has showed great improvement since the holdout, but also keep in mind he was running simple plays against the opposing teams 4th string. RAC is setting himself up to not permit himself, under the process laid down by Parcells and Belichek, to start Quinn. It's all very obvious.

Now on to the opinions of the fans. In a recent on-line poll Cleveland fans polled revealed the following results:

Charlie Frye-48%

Brady Quinn-30%

Derek Anderson-20%

Ken Dorsey-2%

I believe a person can be exquisitely intellegent, yet people can be dumb as a box of rocks. A similar thought can be made about Cleveland Sports Fans. Individually, with the right and honest information can make great analytical conclusions. As a group, generalizing and worrying about past transgretions, the group is like a group of lemings. One person makes a basic, general and normally incorrect comment and the rest follow without question. Somewhere along the lines, Cleveland fans forgot about the glory days and have become content to worry about the past repeating itself with no rhym or reason. Case in point, I would put money on the idea that 90% of the 48% who believe Frye should be the starter are saying so because they are afraid of how Tim Couch's starting too early and the resulting production will similarly effect Brady Quinn. If the Football Gods collectively spoke down to us and said,

"If Quinn starts day 1 his production and future will be NO DIFFERENT than if he start week 12" do you really think the majority of Browns fans would go with a bum like Charlie Frye? No, that would be irresponsible of them. Lemings.

Fast forward to August 25th. Of the three presean opponents, Denver is by far the best defense the Browns have faced. This would prove to be the turning point of the quarterback battle. Naturally, if RAC were to be fair, Frye would have started one game, Anderson one game, and Quinn one game. This did not happen. In order to protect RAC's plan of not giving Quinn a fair shot. Yet, theoretically, most teams play their starters and immediate backups through the third quarter and even into the fourth. Through the first three games, let's compare stats.

Charlie Frye: 22/32-232 yds-0TD's-1INT-a high QB rating:100.6

Derek Anderson: 20/33-215 yds-0TD's-1INT-a high QB rating:58.9

Brady Quinn: 20/32-236yds-3TD's-0INT-a high QB rating:121.9

The numbers alone are almost similar minus the TD/INT ratio. Also, notice, Frye and Anderson played roughly a full game and a half (or 6 quarters). Quinn has played roughly 2 quarters, 25% of which he was ordered to play a sort of prevent offense. When averaged out (which can never really be taken literally...) Quinn dwarf's his teammates at the same position. In the same amount of time played averaged out comes to:

60/96 for 708 yds 9 TD's/0INT.

Quite literally destroying any such "quarterback controversy". These are, however, assumed and imperfect statistics-merely for discussion sake. Keeping all of that in mind while Quinn was still facing Sam Adams, Elvis Dumervil, Ian Gold, John Lynch, Dre Bly, and Champ Bailey...he still out performed Frye and Anderson easily. Let's not forget, Quinn is the only QB to register a TD much less mutliple TD's, a very telling stat.

For those who are not sold on Brady Quinn as an elite QB at the NFL level ask yourself the following questions. Was Quinn's success or lack there of a direct reflection of his surrounding cast. Where did Quinn's offensive line get drafted-if at all? Where did Quinn's starting RB get drafted-if at all? Where would have his #1 WR been drafted? #2 WR? Where did Quinn's starting TE get drafted-if at all? Then ask yourself the same questions about former QB's or eventual first round potential QB's. Matt Leinart? Vince Young? Jay Cutler? Brian Brohm? Chad Henne? John David Booty? You will find that the supporting cast of almost all of them far exceed that of Quinn. Leinart alone is staggering. Bush, L.White, D.Jarrett, as well as offensive lineman-not even comparable. Then consider what happens the second Quinn is surrounded by the percieved starting offense for the Browns.

-A ProBowl running back

-A lottery pick WR

-Arguably the best Possession WR in the league

-Arguably the best Tight End in the league

-A lottery Left Tackle

-A fringe/backup ProBowl Left Guard

-A managable Center

-A formittable Right Guard

-An experienced Right Tackle

-A league renouned successful Offensive Coordinator

With all of these facts in place, no one can refute (before we actually see it) that Quinn doesn't belong in the conversation. It would irresponsible of me to insist that he just be given the job. He like every other player should be forced to earn his spot. Without a shadow of a doubt Quinn even more so than any other QB on the team should be given that opportunity, not shunned to the back of the depth chart like some second rate Arena league player at the end of his professional rope. There have been situations where a rookie comes in and is just flat out better than his counterparts. As far as the Browns are concerned, see: Kamerion Wimbley.

Since, I have not viewed the media's coverage of the Broncos/Browns press conference I cannot completely crucify RAC for not accepting Quinn as a possibility or even the front runner. If RAC is honest and fair to all his players, which seems to be his greatest characteristic according to his players, he will infact say that Quinn has played his way into the Starting Quarterback Competition. If Crennel did not defer to veterans to a fault, and was indeed fair, it is my opinion that this QB competition would be a different tale altogether. If Crennel really is concerned about saving his job, he would forget conventional wisdom and simply evaluate these players on their ability or inability to perform on the field. If I were placed in that very position-As of today, Brady Quinn would have won the starting quarterback job miles ago.

Rarely has an NFL team taken on such an overhaul or facelift as the Cleveland Browns have over the last couple of years. The defense, although not sexy, is effective. With a few exceptions Cleveland's margin of defeat has been less than 10. By season's end, they could have the #1 TE, a top 10 RB, a top 15 WR, and a top 10 offensive line. The only detail missing is the QB-the Field General if you will. This is a positional decision that has to be correct. The Cleveland Browns are facing the Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, and Patriots four out of the first five games of the season. Frye or Anderson cannot beat the any of these teams without some herendous mistake by the other team, or some ridiculous amount of luck. Conversley, Quinn cannot beat them all, but he clearly (in my opinion) gives them the best chance to win, whether they do or not, as they say, "that's why they play the game". Note this-

-vs Pittsburgh

-vs Cincinnati

-@ Oakland-winnable

-vs Baltimore

-@ New England

-vs Miami-winnable

-@ St. Louis

-vs Seattle-winnable

-@ Pittsburgh

-@ Baltimore

-vs Houston-winnable

-@ Arizona

-@ New York Jets-winnable

-vs Buffalo-winnable

-@ Cincinnati

-vs San Francisco-winnable

That is 7 wins outside of the division. Oakland is a joke, Miami is dealing with too much change to be feared, Seattle's window has closed and are on the down turn, Houston is still Houston, Cleveland beat New York last year with a terribly offensive team, Buffalo is young and not very good, and SF is clearly on the upswing but I am not sold yet on them as team to be feared. That's 7 wins out of division. At Cincinnati and at Pittsburgh will probably be losses. Anything else would be delusional of me. The Cardinals scare me this year with their offense. They are in a similar situation with no QB controversy. St. Louis, to me, is a toss up. S. Jackson is a no doubt stud. Torry Holt is very nice, they are a nice team. Remember this, Cleveland always beats some team they have no business beating-St. Louis may be that team. As for Baltimore, those will be the Jamal Lewis show. A probowl running back who feels slighted by his former team. Combine the fact that he will want to embarrace the Ravens at home with the fact that for some undescriptive reason Cleveland just plays Baltimore better in Baltimore. If they are to win against Baltimore it will be in Baltimore. That makes 8 wins with a potential of 9 given the Rams. Which takes us back to the first 3 or 4 important games. Pittsburgh(home), Cincinnati(home), New England(road). Since no schedule ever plays out as calculated, the previous topic of 8 or 9 out of division wins is very fallable. If we assume that 60% of the previous comments can be true, then we are back down to 4 or 5 wins out of division. With the big 3 out of 5 games left (giving Balt a win in CLE) these 3 become exponentially important. If CLE can beat PIT in CLE, beat CIN in CLE, and potentially creep up on NE and at least make a game of it, that will set the tone for the rest of the season.

With Quinn at the helm (with no predetermined fact-again my opinion)

sept 9th-----win at home against PIT

sept 16th----win at home against CIN

sept 23rd----win on the road against OAK

sept 30th----loss at home against BAL

oct 7th-------loss on the road against NE

oct 14th-----win at home against Miami

bye week

oct 28th-----loss on the road against STL

nov 4th------loss at home against SEA

nov 11th-----loss on the road against PIT

nov 18th-----win on the road against BAL

nov 25th-----win at home against HOU

dec 2nd------loss on the road against ARI

dec 9th------win on the road against NYJ

dec 16th-----win at home against BUF

dec 23rd-----loss on the road against CIN

dec 30th-----win at home against SF

_______________________________

that is a record of 9-7. And that is not too far fetched to think it could happen. One thing is for sure 9-7 is unattainable if Frye, Anderson, or Dorsey are to start the season as the starting quarterback of the Cleveland Browns.